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Google's AI Push Is Now Squeezing Its Own Ad Business

Smartphones Posted by Robert Johnson 366 reads

Falling search traffic, slowing ad growth and a school software mandate suggest Google's AI shift is costing it more than goodwill. Here's what it means for buyers.

Google's AI Push Is Now Squeezing Its Own Ad Business

Google's old motto, "Don't be evil," was retired in 2015 in favor of "Do the right thing." Lately the company's AI strategy is testing even that softer line. Big tech stocks have been shedding value for several reasons, including heavy spending on AI infrastructure and public pushback against AI data centers. Google's problems look different, though. They reach directly into the revenue engine that pays for everything else.

Search traffic is draining away

Google's AI Overviews and AI Mode sit above the results people used to click through. Google's Google Search Ecosystem general manager, Mrinalini Loew, has said the features are designed to help people find and visit good websites. Publishers aren't seeing that in their analytics.

Search Engine Land reports that three in four sites' home pages have lost traffic over the past year. Ahrefs found that the presence of an AI Overview correlates with a 58% lower average clickthrough rate for the top-ranking page. Reddit CEO Steve Huffman told analysts on the company's latest earnings call that Google search referrals had declined "meaningfully," because searchers were getting answers in AI Mode and AI Overviews and not clicking through to Reddit.

That pattern matters beyond publishers. A search page that answers the question on the spot gives the user what they wanted, but it also removes the click that ad inventory and affiliate revenue depend on. Anyone who builds a business on organic visibility is now competing with a summary that sits in front of their own listing.

Ad growth is slowing, and the stock has noticed

Google's ad business is still enormous. Internet search ad revenue rose to $63.35 billion, up 12%, though that landed short of analyst estimates of $64.87 billion, or 14.8% growth. Forrester analysts noted that advertising revenue growth slowed to 12%, its slowest rate in five quarters.

Here's the thing: a company like Google gets valued on growth, not on how much money it already makes. A 12% quarter is still a strong number for most businesses, but it reads as a deceleration for an company priced on expectations. Alphabet's GOOGL shares have fallen about 18% over the 30 days to November 6, and a single-day drop last week wiped out $500 billion in market value.

For advertisers, the same dynamic shows up as diminishing returns. If AI answers absorb the clicks, each ad dollar has to work harder to reach a person who is still deciding. Digiday has described this as Google losing its free pass with buyers, and that framing looks more accurate each quarter.

Schools are the sharpest edge

The most striking move is happening in classrooms. According to reporting from the New York Times, Google now requires schools to turn on its AI tools within K-12 student software, or lose access to Google Search. That's a hard bargain, and it's aimed at a market Google already dominates.

Chromebooks run an estimated 60.1% of the global K-12 device market in 2026, according to About Chromebooks, and that source says 93% of US school districts are buying more this year. Schools that have standardized on Google's stack have little room to walk away, which is exactly why the requirement is drawing fire.

Randi Weingarten, president of the American Federation of Teachers, told NBC News that instead of working with teachers and parents on privacy and on tools that are safe and useful, Google is throwing out the baby with the bathwater and cutting off access to the tools altogether. Lina Khan, a prominent critic of Big Tech, argued that Google is using its search dominance to push AI into schools, and that the episode shows the risk of letting one company control a service people depend on.

That's a sharp criticism, but the underlying point is practical. A product that's forced into a workflow rarely wins hearts, and it tends to push users toward alternatives. DuckDuckGo says it's seeing installs rise, with people moving to its service because they don't want AI results pushed on them. That's a company talking about its own growth, so take the number as its claim. The direction of travel is still worth noticing.

What buyers and businesses should do with this

If you're a business that depends on Google for traffic or ads, my read is that you should stop treating search as a fixed channel. Diversify where your customers find you, track clicks and conversions separately from impressions, and check your analytics to see whether your home page traffic has moved.

If you're an educator or school buyer, the questions are sharper. Ask what data an AI feature collects, whether it can be switched off without losing core tools, and what alternatives your current stack supports. Those are contract questions, and they're easier to ask before a renewal than after.

And if you're an everyday user, you don't need to abandon Google tomorrow. Still, it's worth testing a second search engine and a second browser now, so switching later won't be a scramble. Google's AI features may improve, and the company may fix the ad and publisher problems. Still, the pattern of falling click-throughs, slowing growth and forced adoption suggests the ground is shifting. I don't know yet which alternative will catch the traffic. But the cracks are getting hard to ignore.

Source: Robert Johnson · www.computerworld.com

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